Time series forecasting is crucial for applications across multiple domains and various scenarios. Although Transformer models have dramatically shifted the landscape of forecasting, their effectiveness remains debated. Recent findings have indicated that simpler linear models might outperform complex Transformer-based approaches, highlighting the potential for more streamlined architectures. In this paper, we shift focus from the overall architecture of the Transformer to the effectiveness of self-attentions for time series forecasting. To this end, we introduce a new architecture, Cross-Attention-only Time Series transformer (CATS), that rethinks the traditional Transformer framework by eliminating self-attention and leveraging cross-attention mechanisms instead. By establishing future horizon-dependent parameters as queries and enhanced parameter sharing, our model not only improves long-term forecasting accuracy but also reduces the number of parameters and memory usage. Extensive experiment across various datasets demonstrates that our model achieves superior performance with the lowest mean squared error and uses fewer parameters compared to existing models.

Adversarial training has become the de-facto standard method for improving the robustness of models against adversarial examples. However, robust overfitting remains a significant challenge, leading to a large gap between the robustness on the training and test datasets. To understand and improve robust generalization, various measures have been developed, including margin, smoothness, and flatness-based measures. In this study, we present a large-scale analysis of robust generalization to empirically verify whether the relationship between these measures and robust generalization remains valid in diverse settings. We demonstrate when and how these measures effectively capture the robust generalization gap by comparing over 1,300 models trained on CIFAR-10 under the norm and further validate our findings through an evaluation of more than 100 models from RobustBench across CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet. We hope this work can help the community better understand adversarial robustness and motivate the development of more robust defense methods against adversarial attacks.

Deep learning is vulnerable to adversarial examples. Many defenses based on randomized neural networks have been proposed to solve the problem, but fail to achieve robustness against attacks using proxy gradients such as the Expectation over Transformation (EOT) attack. We investigate the effect of the adversarial attacks using proxy gradients on randomized neural networks and demonstrate that it highly relies on the directional distribution of the loss gradients of the randomized neural network. We show in particular that proxy gradients are less effective when the gradients are more scattered. To this end, we propose Gradient Diversity (GradDiv) regularizations that minimize the concentration of the gradients to build a robust randomized neural network. Our experiments on MNIST, CIFAR10, and STL10 show that our proposed GradDiv regularizations improve the adversarial robustness of randomized neural networks against a variety of state-of-the-art attack methods. Moreover, our method efficiently reduces the transferability among sample models of randomized neural networks.

Although fast adversarial training has demonstrated both robustness and efficiency, the problem of "catastrophic overfitting" has been observed. This is a phenomenon in which, during single-step adversarial training, the robust accuracy against projected gradient descent (PGD) suddenly decreases to 0% after a few epochs, whereas the robust accuracy against fast gradient sign method (FGSM) increases to 100%. In this paper, we demonstrate that catastrophic overfitting is very closely related to the characteristic of single-step adversarial training which uses only adversarial examples with the maximum perturbation, and not all adversarial examples in the adversarial direction, which leads to decision boundary distortion and a highly curved loss surface. Based on this observation, we propose a simple method that not only prevents catastrophic overfitting, but also overrides the belief that it is difficult to prevent multi-step adversarial attacks with single-step adversarial training.

Torchattacks is a PyTorch library that contains adversarial attacks to generate adversarial examples and to verify the robustness of deep learning models.